California House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave David G. Valadao a 38% chance of winning the California House 2022 primary. David G. Valadao won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. David G. Valadao — 38% model odds (won)
  2. Chris Mathys — 31% model odds (won)
  3. Adam Medeiros — 31% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts