California House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Michael Maher a 50% chance of winning the California House 2022 primary. Michael Maher won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Michael Maher — 50% model odds (won)
  2. Matt Stoll — 50% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts