California House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Alison Hayden a 33% chance of winning the California House 2022 primary. Alison Hayden won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Alison Hayden — 33% model odds (won)
  2. Tom Wong — 33% model odds (won)
  3. Sri "Steve" Iyer — 33% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts