California House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave John Duarte a 43% chance of winning the California House 2022 primary. John Duarte won, matching the model's top pick.

1. John Duarte — 43% model odds (won)
2. David A. Giglio — 40% model odds (won)
3. Diego Javier Martinez — 18% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts