California House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Nancy Pelosi a 65% chance of winning the California House 2022 primary. Nancy Pelosi won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Nancy Pelosi — 65% model odds (won)
  2. Bianca Von Krieg — 16% model odds
  3. Shahid Buttar — 13% model odds (won)
  4. Jeffrey Phillips — 6% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts