California House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Tom Patti a 33% chance of winning the California House 2022 primary. Tom Patti won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Tom Patti — 33% model odds (won)
2. Jim Shoemaker — 33% model odds (won)
3. Jonathan Madison — 33% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts