California House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Josh Harder a 50% chance of winning the California House 2022 primary. Josh Harder won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Josh Harder — 50% model odds (won)
2. Harpreet Singh Chima — 17% model odds (won)
3. Khalid Jeffrey Jafri — 17% model odds
4. Karena Apple Feng — 17% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts