California House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave John Garamendi a 57% chance of winning the California House 2022 primary. John Garamendi won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. John Garamendi — 57% model odds (won)
  2. Cheryl Sudduth — 11% model odds (won)
  3. Christopher Riley — 11% model odds
  4. Edwin Rutsch — 11% model odds
  5. Demnlus Johnson — 11% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts