California House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Ami Bera a 50% chance of winning the California House 2022 primary. Ami Bera won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Ami Bera — 50% model odds (won)
  2. Mark Gorman — 50% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts