California House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Kermit Jones a 42% chance of winning the California House 2022 primary. Kermit Jones won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Kermit Jones — 42% model odds (won)
  2. Scott Jones — 29% model odds (won)
  3. David Peterson — 29% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts