California House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Doug Lamalfa a 50% chance of winning the California House 2022 primary. Doug Lamalfa won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Doug Lamalfa — 50% model odds (won)
2. Tim Geist — 50% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts