Arizona Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Blake Masters a 73% chance of winning the Arizona Senate 2022 primary. Blake Masters won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Blake Masters — 73% model odds (won)
  2. Jim Lamon — 5% model odds
  3. Mark Brnovich — 5% model odds
  4. Michael "Mick" Mcguire — 5% model odds
  5. Justin Olson — 5% model odds
  6. David Samuel Bozic — 5% model odds
  7. Frank Bertone — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts