Arizona House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Paul Gosar a 68% chance of winning the Arizona House 2022 primary. Paul Gosar won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Paul Gosar — 68% model odds (won)
  2. Jack Harper — 16% model odds
  3. Randy Kutz — 6% model odds
  4. Adam Morgan — 6% model odds
  5. Sandra E. Dowling — 6% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts