Arizona House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Juan Ciscomani a 56% chance of winning the Arizona House 2022 primary. Juan Ciscomani won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Juan Ciscomani — 56% model odds (won)
  2. Kathleen Winn — 13% model odds
  3. Jordan Flayer — 13% model odds
  4. Brandon Martin — 6% model odds
  5. Young Mayberry — 6% model odds
  6. Lucretia Free — 6% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts