Arizona House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Daniel Hernandez a 48% chance of winning the Arizona House 2022 primary. Kirsten Engel won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Daniel Hernandez — 48% model odds
  2. Kirsten Engel — 47% model odds (won)
  3. Avery Anderson — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts