Arizona House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Kelly Cooper a 44% chance of winning the Arizona House 2022 primary. Kelly Cooper won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Kelly Cooper — 44% model odds (won)
  2. Tanya Contreras Wheeless — 40% model odds
  3. Jerone Davison — 9% model odds
  4. Dave Giles — 3% model odds
  5. Rene Lopez — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts