Arizona House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Eli Crane a 51% chance of winning the Arizona House 2022 primary. Eli Crane won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Eli Crane — 51% model odds (won)
2. Steven Kyrstofiak — 32% model odds
3. Walter "Walt" Blackman — 4% model odds
4. Mark Deluzio — 4% model odds
5. Andy Yates — 4% model odds
6. John W. Moore — 4% model odds
7. Ron Watkins — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts