Arkansas Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave John Boozman a 52% chance of winning the Arkansas Senate 2022 primary. John Boozman won, matching the model's top pick.

1. John Boozman — 52% model odds (won)
2. Jake Bequette — 16% model odds
3. Jan Morgan — 16% model odds
4. Heath Loftis — 16% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts