Arkansas House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Rick Crawford a 93% chance of winning the Arkansas House 2022 primary. Rick Crawford won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Rick Crawford — 93% model odds (won)
  2. Jody Shackelford — 4% model odds
  3. Brandt Smith — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts