Alaska Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Lisa Murkowski a 41% chance of winning the Alaska Senate 2022 primary. Lisa Murkowski won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Lisa Murkowski — 41% model odds (won)
  2. Kelly C. Tshibaka — 41% model odds
  3. Kendall L. Shorkey — 6% model odds
  4. Buzz A. Kelley — 3% model odds
  5. Pat L. Nolin — 3% model odds
  6. Samuel A. "Al" Merrill — 3% model odds
  7. John Scheiss — 3% model odds
  8. Karl W. Speights — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts