Alaska Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Scattered a 55% chance of winning the Alaska Senate 2022 primary. Shoshana Gungurstein won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Scattered — 55% model odds
  2. Shoshana Gungurstein — 15% model odds (won)
  3. Jeremy Keller — 15% model odds
  4. Sidney "Sid" Hill — 15% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts