Alaska Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Edgar Blatchford a 46% chance of winning the Alaska Senate 2022 primary. Patricia R. Chesbro won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Edgar Blatchford — 46% model odds
  2. Patricia R. Chesbro — 14% model odds (won)
  3. Ivan R. Taylor — 14% model odds
  4. Huhnkie Lee — 14% model odds
  5. Dave H. Darden — 14% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts