Alaska House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Robert "Bob" Lyons a 25% chance of winning the Alaska House 2022 primary. Sarah Palin won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Robert "Bob" Lyons — 25% model odds
  2. Sarah Palin — 11% model odds (won)
  3. Nick Begich — 11% model odds
  4. Tara M. # Sweeney — 11% model odds
  5. Jay R. Armstrong — 11% model odds
  6. Brad Snowden — 11% model odds
  7. Randy Purham — 11% model odds
  8. Denise A. Williams — 11% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts