Alaska House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave At Large District a 17% chance of winning the Alaska House 2022 primary. Lady Donna Dutchess won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. At Large District — 17% model odds
2. Scattered — 17% model odds
3. Lady Donna Dutchess — 17% model odds (won)
4. Andrew H. Phelps — 17% model odds
5. Tremayne Wilson — 17% model odds
6. Ted Heintz — 17% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts