Washington House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Scattered a 30% chance of winning the Washington House 2020 primary. Justin Smoak won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Scattered — 30% model odds
2. Justin Smoak — 23% model odds (won)
3. Matthew Heines — 23% model odds (won)
4. Robert Dean Mair — 23% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts