Vermont House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Justin Tuthill a 7% chance of winning the Vermont House 2020 primary. Miriam Berry won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Justin Tuthill — 7% model odds
  2. Peter Welch — 7% model odds
  3. Jim Douglas — 7% model odds
  4. Benjamin Mutalo — 7% model odds
  5. Peter Welch — 7% model odds
  6. Miriam Berry — 5% model odds (won)
  7. Anya Tynio — 5% model odds
  8. Jimmy Rodriguez — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts