Virginia Senate 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Alissa A. Baldwin a 57% chance of winning the Virginia Senate 2020 primary. Daniel M. Gade won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Alissa A. Baldwin — 57% model odds
  2. Daniel M. Gade — 14% model odds (won)
  3. Thomas A., Ii Speciale — 14% model odds
  4. Scattered — 14% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts