Virginia House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Scattered a 40% chance of winning the Virginia House 2020 primary. John W., Jr. Collick won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Scattered — 40% model odds
2. J. H. Madison Downs — 38% model odds
3. John W., Jr. Collick — 11% model odds (won)
4. George M. Yacus — 11% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts