Texas Senate 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave John Cornyn a 77% chance of winning the Texas Senate 2020 primary. John Cornyn won, matching the model's top pick.

1. John Cornyn — 77% model odds (won)
2. Dwayne Stovall — 5% model odds
3. Mark Yancey — 5% model odds
4. John Anthony Castro — 5% model odds
5. Virgil Bierschwale — 5% model odds
6. David B. Collins — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts