Texas Senate 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Cristina Tzintzun Ramirez a 41% chance of winning the Texas Senate 2020 primary. Mary "Mj" Hegar won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Cristina Tzintzun Ramirez — 41% model odds
  2. Mary "Mj" Hegar — 39% model odds (won)
  3. Chris Bell — 3% model odds
  4. Royce West — 2% model odds
  5. Annie "Mamá" Garcia — 2% model odds
  6. Amanda K. Edwards — 2% model odds
  7. Sema Hernandez — 2% model odds
  8. Michael Cooper — 2% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts