Texas House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave "Guillermo" William Hayward a 74% chance of winning the Texas House 2020 primary. Jenny Garcia Sharon won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. "Guillermo" William Hayward — 74% model odds
  2. Jenny Garcia Sharon — 26% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts