Texas House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Nick Moutos a 78% chance of winning the Texas House 2020 primary. Jenny Garcia Sharon won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Nick Moutos — 78% model odds
  2. Jenny Garcia Sharon — 11% model odds (won)
  3. "Guillermo" William Hayward — 11% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts