Texas House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jessica Cisneros a 50% chance of winning the Texas House 2020 primary. Henry Cuellar won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Jessica Cisneros — 50% model odds
2. Henry Cuellar — 50% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts