Texas House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Candace Valenzuela a 47% chance of winning the Texas House 2020 primary. Kim Olson won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Candace Valenzuela — 47% model odds
  2. Kim Olson — 40% model odds (won)
  3. Jan Mcdowell — 4% model odds
  4. Crystal Fletcher — 2% model odds
  5. Richard Fleming — 2% model odds
  6. Sam Vega — 2% model odds
  7. John Biggan — 2% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts