Texas House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Irene Armendariz-Jackson a 68% chance of winning the Texas House 2020 primary. Sam Williams won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Irene Armendariz-Jackson — 68% model odds
  2. Jaime, Jr. Arriola — 13% model odds
  3. Anthony Aguero — 6% model odds
  4. Patrick Hernandez-Cigarruista — 6% model odds
  5. Sam Williams — 4% model odds (won)
  6. Blanca Ortiz Trout — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts