Texas House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Ronny Jackson a 42% chance of winning the Texas House 2020 primary. Josh Winegarner won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Ronny Jackson — 42% model odds
  2. Josh Winegarner — 14% model odds (won)
  3. Chris Ekstrom — 8% model odds
  4. Elaine Hays — 8% model odds
  5. Asusena Reséndiz — 6% model odds
  6. Richard Herman — 3% model odds
  7. Lee Harvey — 2% model odds
  8. Vance, Ii Snider — 2% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts