South Dakota House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Liz Marty May a 52% chance of winning the South Dakota House 2020 primary. Dusty Johnson won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Liz Marty May — 52% model odds
  2. Dusty Johnson — 48% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts