Pennsylvania House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Scattered a 65% chance of winning the Pennsylvania House 2020 primary. Gary Wegman won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Scattered — 65% model odds
  2. Gary Wegman — 17% model odds (won)
  3. Laura Quick — 17% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts