Oregon House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave John P. Holm a 27% chance of winning the Oregon House 2020 primary. Alex Spenser won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. John P. Holm — 27% model odds
2. Nick (Nik) L. Heuertz — 19% model odds
3. Alex Spenser — 14% model odds (won)
4. Chris Vaughn — 14% model odds
5. Jack Howard — 14% model odds
6. Scattered — 14% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts