New York House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Scattered a 21% chance of winning the New York House 2020 primary. Chris # Jacobs won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Scattered — 21% model odds
  2. Chris # Jacobs — 15% model odds (won)
  3. Chris # Jacobs — 15% model odds
  4. Beth Parlato — 12% model odds
  5. Stephan I., Jr. Mychajliw — 12% model odds
  6. Beth # Parlato — 12% model odds
  7. Michael J. # Gammariello — 12% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts