New York House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Nicholas P. Phelps a 63% chance of winning the New York House 2020 primary. Duane J. Whitmer won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Nicholas P. Phelps — 63% model odds
2. Duane J. Whitmer — 18% model odds (won)
3. Scattered — 18% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts