New York House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Joseph D. Morelle a 46% chance of winning the New York House 2020 primary. Joseph D. Morelle won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Joseph D. Morelle — 46% model odds (won)
2. Joseph D. Morelle — 46% model odds
3. Scattered — 5% model odds
4. Robin Wilt — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts