New York House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Claudia Tenney a 45% chance of winning the New York House 2020 primary. Claudia # Tenney won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Claudia Tenney — 45% model odds
2. Claudia # Tenney — 39% model odds (won)
3. Scattered — 13% model odds
4. George K. Phillips — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts