New York House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Scattered a 43% chance of winning the New York House 2020 primary. Maureen Mcardle-Schulman won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Scattered — 43% model odds
2. Maureen Mcardle-Schulman — 19% model odds (won)
3. Yehudis Gottesfeld — 19% model odds
4. Yehudis Gottesfeld — 19% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts