New York House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Mondaire Jones a 40% chance of winning the New York House 2020 primary. Mondaire Jones won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Mondaire Jones — 40% model odds (won)
  2. Evelyn Farkas — 19% model odds
  3. Asha Castleberry — 12% model odds
  4. David Buchwald — 9% model odds
  5. David Carlucci — 7% model odds
  6. Allison H. Fine — 7% model odds
  7. Adam P. Schleifer — 4% model odds
  8. Catherine F. Parker — 2% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts