New York House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Eliot L. Engel a 45% chance of winning the New York House 2020 primary. Jamaal Bowman won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Eliot L. Engel — 45% model odds
2. Jamaal Bowman — 44% model odds (won)
3. Andom Ghebreghiorgis — 4% model odds
4. Chris Fink — 2% model odds
5. Sammy Ravelo — 2% model odds
6. Scattered — 2% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts