New York House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez a 34% chance of winning the New York House 2020 primary. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — 34% model odds (won)
  2. Michelle Caruso-Cabrera — 17% model odds
  3. Badrun N. Khan — 17% model odds
  4. Samuel H. Sloan — 17% model odds
  5. Scattered — 17% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts