New York House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Lindsay Boylan a 53% chance of winning the New York House 2020 primary. Jerrold L. Nadler won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Lindsay Boylan — 53% model odds
2. Jerrold L. Nadler — 25% model odds (won)
3. Jonathan Herzog — 14% model odds
4. Scattered — 9% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts