New Mexico House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Teresa Leger Fernandez a 78% chance of winning the New Mexico House 2020 primary. Teresa Leger Fernandez won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Teresa Leger Fernandez — 78% model odds (won)
  2. Marco Peter Serna — 4% model odds
  3. John Blair — 4% model odds
  4. Valerie E. Plame — 4% model odds
  5. Joseph L. Sanchez — 3% model odds
  6. Laura M. Montoya — 3% model odds
  7. Kyle J. Tisdel — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts