New Mexico House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Michelle Garcia Holmes an 81% chance of winning the New Mexico House 2020 primary. Michelle Garcia Holmes won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Michelle Garcia Holmes — 81% model odds (won)
  2. Jared R. Vander Dussen — 10% model odds
  3. Brett Kokinadis — 10% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts